Bullshit Building 9: Every Statue of the Worst Tyrant

After discussing 8 bullshit buildings in Asia, Europe, and Africa, time to move to the continent across the Atlantic: America.

You can see, unlike for my previous bullshit buildings articles, I choose a little bit cryptic title for this one. So let's start this article with a pop quiz: Who do you think is the worse tyrant of all time?

My guess most people will vote for Adolf Hitler, or Joseph Stalin, or Mao Zedong. After those 3, Pol Pot, Vlad the Impaler, Saddam Hussein, and many other infamous dictator who slaughter less people will come second. Not me. My vote goes to Francisco Solano López, the dude in the photo on the right. I am pretty sure most of you will scratch your head when you hear that name or see that photo. I guess, readers who come from or know the history of Brazil and/or Uruguay will nod in agreement with me. As for people who come from Paraguay and Argentina ... it is complicated.

In order to understand the bullshitness of the statue of this man, you have to know his story. This is a story about true love ... and unprecedented horrors.

Before the Tyrant

Its all begun in Paraguay, mid 1850s. Carlos Antonio López ruled Paraguay with iron hand. He was a tyrant, but his people still managed to live under his rule. He built many schools, roads, telephone lines, etc. At the same time, he made Paraguayan army the most powerful army in that region. His jealousy almost instigated wars with Great Britain, USA, and his neighbors, but he always managed to defuse the situation at the last minute. Oh yeah, he also abolished slavery and torture, and releasing all political prisoners jailed by his predecessor. Not bad for a despot.

López Sr. send his oldest son, Francisco Solano, to Europe. His objective: representing his father to buy arms. Of course he had fun too during this tour. In Paris, he met a beautiful Irish prostitute, who was also an ex-wife of a French officer, a very beautiful blonde named Eliza Lynch. And they fell in love. When Solano returned to his home country, Eliza came with him. López Sr. and many other were understandably outraged when they discovered  this. Nevertheless, amor vincit omnia, love conquers all, so Eliza stayed as López Jr.'s mistress.

Quick comparison between the worst tyrants:
In his early years, Hitler experienced hardships: death of his beloved mother, rejection from Vienna University, etc. Combined that with 1st World War, rampant inflation, etc, life is pretty hard for young Adolf. 
Same with Stalin, he was targeted and jailed by the Czars secret police during the chaotic last years of the Romanov's reign.
Mao also experienced similar hardship, living as a poor student during China's tumultuous time, ravaged by civil wars and corruption, full with uncertainty. 
Contrary with them, Francisco Solano López was born with silver spoon in his mouth, due to winning a genetic lottery. What a lucky bastard ...

Then López Sr. dropped dead in 1862 and succeeded by Francisco Solano. To say that "everything went downhill from this point" is a very big understatement. 

The Beginning of the reign

López decided to continue the development. Unfortunately, his delusion of grandeur, combined with the vanity of his mistress means lots of bullshit projects. One example is the Asuncion Opera House, which imitates the La Scala Opera House. This Opera House didn't have any roof for decades. That is one good example of a bullshit building, but the story of that Opera house won't do justice to López since the Opera House was the least problem he created.

At that time, the political world of Latin America was divided by the traditional Blancos vs  western-oriented Colorados dichotomy. At the same time, Brazil and Argentina struggled to become local superpower. López was a Blanco. So did the government of Uruguay. But the government of Brazil of that time was Colorado. So, the Brazillians didn't like the fact that a Blanco government ruled on its southern border, and decided to invade it.

The Triple Alliance War

López decided to help his fellow Blancos in Uruguay. One problem: Paraguay and Uruguay never have a shared border. So López send his army to slaughter and loot everything in Brazilian territory near Paraguayan border, hoping to distract the Brazilian army. Because that area is basically a thick jungle, the Brazilian army didn't even bother to send any major unit to repel López army.

Map of South America

Since his distraction operation failed, López had to cross Argentinian territory to assist Uruguay directly. When he asked permission to do that, president Mitre of Argentina reject him. Even though Mitre was no fans of Brazil, the thought of López army crossing his territory was even more appalling. At that time, February 1865, the Uruguayan government already fell. This was the best chance for López to defuse the situation. López didn't see it that way. It seems he thought that apologizing is for pussy, so he declared war against Argentina, and send his army to slaughter and loot the Argentinians, forcing their way to Uruguay.

Extremely pissed by this, the Argentinian, Brazilian, and Uruguayan government created a "Triple Alliance," hence the name "Triple Alliance War". Yup, you read it correctly, the land locked and small country of Paraguay was at war with similar-size Uruguay plus its 2 gigantic-size neighbors. López managed to unite the Brazilians and Argentinians. Too bad that alliance was meant to hunt his head.

After some victories in the early stages of the wars, the destruction of Paraguay Navy in the Battle of Riachuelo totally changed the war. Paraguay army was retreating, and repeatedly defeated by the alliance's forces. The alliance were also losing soldiers, but with their massive population and resources, they could replace it. Paraguay on the other hand, started to run out of adult male, so they were forced to recruit minors. Adult males were not the only thing they ran out. Remember the fact that Paraguay is a land-locked country? The Paraguayan army had difficulties in replacing their used ammunitions since most of their ammo were imported. Lòpez and his rag-tag army were  forced to flee from the capital, to the jungle.

Like a typical tyrant, he was sure that he was destined for greatness, so all this defeats had to be due to conspiracies! He blamed his advisors, officials, military officers, and all the foreigners. He even begun slaughtering his own families. His 2 brothers and 2 brothers-in-laws were all killed. See, Stalin, Hitler, and Mao had slaughtered millions, but butchering their own family directly? Nah, those amateurs never go that far!

But wait, that was not all! López mother suddenly revealed one terrible secret: he is literally a bastard, fathered out of wedlock. He went ballistic. His own mother even conspired against him! His reaction was swift and brutal. His old mother was caged, together with his sisters, and flogged along their journey deep inside Paraguayan jungle. Remember, we are talking about his mother here, the woman who bring him to this world!

There is an adage "One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter," but no one say "one man's mother torturer is another man's hero." So now you see why even a maniac like Hitler suddenly looks like Florence Nightingale in comparison to Francisco Solano López. No. Forget those 3 amateurs. I am pretty sure that López supervised the devil himself when Satan wrote his dissertation about "Cruelty". Poor Satan definitely need some guidance from López!

During his flee, finally López was cornered by the Brazillian army. He was killed at 1st of March 1870 when the Brazillians tried to disarm him. His last words were Muero con mi patria! or "My nation die with me!" He got a point there. Eliza Lynch was forced to dig her lover's grave with her bare hand before kicked out of the country.

The Aftermath

Paraguay Territorial Loss

After the death of López, Paraguay lost almost everything. At that time, Paraguay was known as "The country of woman" since for some years adult male were generally absent. A large part of its territory was annexed by Argentina and Brazil, including areas where the very important yerba mate cash crops were cultivated. The Alliance army also practically occupied Paraguay until 1876. Of course Paraguay had to pay reparation to Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. 

Despite winning the war, the Alliance got crippled by their debts. Brazil, for example, only managed to pay off their debt in the 1950s. So, in essence, López ruined 4 countries, while slaughtering most of the male population of his own country and his own brothers, and as the final act, he also tortured his own sisters and mother. López put the bar very high for any future dictator who are interested in replacing him as "The worst tyrant of all time."

Oh yeah, his true love, Eliza Lynch also tried to come back to Paraguay some years later, when she thought she could reclaimed some of "her" properties. She was kicked out again, this time permanently. She died in obscurity in Paris in 1886.



Today's situation
So, you already know the life of Francisco Solano López. Maybe you wonder "Who the hell want to make a statue of this monster?"

Remember in the beginning of this article when I said that Argentinians and Paraguayans view of him is complicated?

Fast forward to the 1930s. At that time, Paraguay faced another war. This time against Bolivia. They need to rally the people. They need an unifying figure, a hero ... a legend. Desperate to found one, they finally settle with Francisco Solano López. Paraguay politicians eagerly re-visioned history to make him look as heroic as possible, whitewashing everything. They even moved his remains to "National Pantheon of Heroes," and designates his date of death as "Heroes Day." The dictator of Paraguay in 20th century, Stroessner, also took the remains of Eliza Lynch, declared her "national heroine," and buried her in a notable grave in Asuncion. So, despite the fact that López is the dude who flogged his own mother, he is until today (2012), considered as the greatest Paraguayan hero! That's why they built him some statues! Wow, imagine your reaction if you saw someone built a statue to respect Hitler in Israel or in his hometown ...

Not only the Paraguayans, the Argentinian revered him too! As sign of respect, in 2009, the Argentinians even named one of their Armored Artillery Group after López! Huh? How come? That is because he and his father repeatedly ranted against the British. For those of you who forgot, Argentina is still pissed by the British after the Falkland War.

No wonder everybody said politic is dirty, bloody, and above all ... disgusting ...

Previous Bullshit Building Article: Chinese Ghost Towns
Next Bullshit Building: Ion Storm's Office

Sources:

"Stupid Wars" by Ed Strosser and Michael Prince

The "War Nerd" article on the War of Triple Alliance
South America map from:  http://www.boothroyd.com/sa.htm
Paraguayan territorial loss map from:  http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Krigsteater_trippelalliansekrigen.png?uselang=es

Photos of Statues from Panoramio:
http://www.panoramio.com/photo/15831475
http://mw2.google.com/mw-panoramio/photos/medium/68338240.jpg

Utopia

English:

I have some ideas how an ideal country worked. Hopefully, these utopian ideas aren't a "castle in the air." An ideal country for me is a country ...

Obama Care

The Supreme court rule that Obama Care is constitutional!

Hurra!

Hey, I am not an American, why I care about this? Simple, because I still have conscience, and health care is a very fundamental aspect of human's life.

I was really annoyed when I saw conservatives and libertarians repeatedly campaign against "Big government" or "socialism." Hey genius, pure socialism kills, but so does pure capitalism. If you don't believe me, just imagine a world with privatized police force, fire department, and military. Got the picture?

Here is the reason why we still need socialism: there are many things we can't commercialized/regarded as a commodity. Capitalism runs perfectly for commodities, but is a lousy arrangement for non-commodity. I don't believe that many Americans think that human health is something that you can make profit from. Really. I could illustrate it like this:

Imagine that you walked nearby a lake. Suddenly, you hear a scream. There is a man in the lake, gasping! Nearby where you stand, there is a rope and a buoy attached to it for such occasion. Now tell me, is it ethical if you insist that the poor man pay you?

Really, it is like that if you try to monetize/commercialized health care. Of course I don't kid myself. The rope-buoy itself is not free. In health-care case, we still need to pay for the doctor, hospital, medicines, etc. That's why you need some form of taxation to make sure those services were properly paid. Luckily now American has that chance, an Universal-Health-Care similar to the Germany and Switzerland system, where the people with "pre-existing condition" could be insured since everyone share their burden. Thank God for the Obama Care.


Oh yeah, also big thanks to Mitt Romney for the example. Mr. President owe you this one!  We can call it Obamney Care too! Vote for Romney!

Marijuana, Cannabis, Ganja

Sumber dan Keterangan lebih lanjut: wikipedia

English:
I am baffled, why governments prohibited cannabis? Because it cause harm to the people? Seriously?

Check the chart on the right. Cannabis is less addictive than alcohol or tobacco. The physical harm of cannabis is also less in comparison with those 2. And I didn't even compare it with cocaine or heroine. Heck, even when we compare soda and cannabis, cannabis is still the less harmful one!

So? Why you could buy Marlboro, or even Jack Daniels, in a 7-11 next door while cannabis seller are threatened with jail? Why cola is an ordinary drink while cannabis is illegal? And this happens not only in Indonesia, but in most part of the world.

Hmm ... my guess the reason behind this is similar for the reason behind the campaign against condom: our society is still obsessed with masochism! We still think that somehow worldly pleasure is something that we have to avoid, that misery is part of spiritualism, that suffering is sign of civilization, yadda yadda yadda. This is not about "protecting the young," this is about "making sure that young people do exactly as I said!" it's about control, about power, about making sure nobody could enjoy worldly pleasure freely. What else differentiate cannabis with tobacco and alcohol?

Yup, this is a sad fact: even developed countries still has this masochism as their basis for regulation.

Here is a suggestion for any government, especially American: legalize cannabis. Tax it heavily like you taxed tobaccos. This will partially end "The war on drugs," saving millions, if not billions of dollars, while creating new source of income. I heard you have this "Deficit problem," so why don't you make sure every single stoner pay you some money?

Any harm caused by cannabis is similar to any harm caused by alcohol, e.g: drunk driving, and a stoner is less likely to do many brutal things that a drunk could do, e.g.: physical attack, rape, etc. So, instead of prohibiting cannabis, it is better to e.g. prohibiting "going high" behind the steering wheel. Just like how to minimize the harm caused by alcohol, not by prohibition, but by creating a law that no drunkard may drive.

So, what are you waiting for America? Start legalizing marijuana and reaped the benefit!


Bahasa Indonesia:

Saya tak habis pikir, kenapa sih yang namanya ganja dilarang? Karena merugikan masyarakat? Apa betul?

Coba perhatikan grafik di pojok kanan atas. Lihat baik². Ganja/Cannabis itu memiliki kemampuan menyebabkan kecanduan LEBIH RENDAH daripada alkohol atau tembakau. Efek buruknya pada tubuhpun LEBIH RENDAH daripada alkohol dan tembakau. Apalagi dibandingkan dengan kokain dan heroin. Hei, bahkan ada yang membandingkan soda dengan ganja! Kejutan, soda ternyata lebih merusak!

Terus? Kenapa warung disebelah rumah saya bisa menjual rokok tapi semua penjual ganja langsung dibui? Kenapa cola dianggap minuman wajar sementara ganja dicap barang haram? Gilanya lagi, ini bukan cuma terjadi di Indonesia saja, tapi di sebagian besar dunia! Kenapa sih semua orang terobsesi melarang zat yang lebih ringan daripada alkohol atau tembakau sih?

Hmm ... tebakan saya ini kembali lagi ke argumen saya tentang kondom, yaitu masyarakat kita terobsesi pada masokisme! Yup. Ini dia yang membedakan ganja dengan nikotin dan alkohol, "kenikmatan" yang diciptakan ganja jauh lebih kuat.

Yup, pemerintah² negara majupun masih terobsesi pada masokisme, pada ide bahwa menjauhi kesenangan otomatis adalah kebajikan. Menyedihkan. Sangat menyedihkan.

Saran buat pemerintah: legalisasi ganja. Tarik pajak dari semua penjualan ganja, sama seperti pemerintah menarik pajak/cukai tembakau dan alkohol. Katanya pemerintah sedang butuh uangkan?

Semua mudarat ganja, serupa dengan mudarat alkohol. Mengemudi dengan mabuk misalnya. Dan seorang yang sedang "high" akibat menghisap ganja malah tidak seberbahaya seorang pemabuk. Misalnya, seorang pemabuk bisa jadi agresif, sementara seorang "stoner" tidak akan agresif. Artinya, daripada melarang ganja, mudarat ganja bisa kita hapuskan dengan melarang "high" di tempat dan waktu tertentu, misalnya ketika mengemudi. Sama seperti langkah negara² Barat mengurangi mudarat alkohol dengan melarang pemabuk mengemudi.

Jadi, tunggu apa lagi? Saatnya kita melegalisasi ganja dan tarik manfaatnya!

Sunat di Jerman

Pengadilan Köln/Cologne Jerman memutuskan bahwa sunat untuk anak² adalah ilegal. Mereka menyatakan, hak untuk integritas tubuh adalah fundamental, melebihi hak agama atau budaya.

BAGUS!

Ini adalah langkah pertama untuk memperkuat individualisme.

Coba deh dengarkan frase² ini:

Anak neo-liberal, anak komunis, anak sosialis, anak konservatif, anak libertarian, dst.

Tolol kan? Tentu saja tolol, namanya anak kecil mereka tahu apa soal ideologi² atau filsafat² tsb? Kalau frase² tadi tolol, kenapa frase² berikut terdengar normal:
Anak Kristen, anak Muslim, anak Buddhis, anak Hindu, dst.

Jawaban: karena agama membuat orang merasa punya hak melakukan hal² irasional dan imoral. Sungguh. Agama serupa dengan ideologi sebab keduanya adalah 1 set cara berpikir, cara memandang dunia, cara menentukan benar dan salah. Biar si anak belajar tentang agama² yang ada di dunia biar dia memutuskan sendiri agama mana yang cocok dengannya. Menjejali dia dengan ajaran 1 agama ketika dia belum bisa berpikir adalah CUCI OTAK. Plain and simple.

Tapi ini pasti baru dimulai. Pasti banyak yang murka. Berani²nya pengadilan Jerman mengganggu proses cuci otak anak kami, dan melarang memutilasi kemaluan mereka! Hei bung, tidak ada yang melarang sunat kalau sang anak sudah besar. Kalau mereka sendiri memutuskan untuk melakukan sunat, silahkan saja. Lagi² ini sebetulnya bukan masalah sunat per se, tapi ini adalah masalah "Saya mau negara mengakui hak saya memaksa anak saya memutilasi kejantanan mereka!!" Yup, lagi² ini soal kontrol.

Banyak yang ber-tanya² kenapa Barat bisa lebih maju, bisa menciptakan hal² baru sementara kebudayaan² lain cuma bisa mengekor. Ini salah 1 sebabnya. Kebudayaan Barat mengakui pentingnya perbedaan individu dan hak individu untuk berbeda. Kebanyakan budaya lain benar² tak suka "individualisme" ini dan memangkas semua individu yang berbeda dari "adat istiadat." Dengan cara berpikir "anti individualis" macam ini, mana bisa individu² mengembangkan keunikan² mereka. Keunikan² inilah yang menjadi sumber penemuan² baru di dunia Barat.

Oh ya, jangan salahin orang² Yahudi soal ini yah. Mereka sama gilanya dengan kalian soal ini. Mereka juga ngotot hendak menyunat anak² mereka.

Sex Bebas, Kondom, dan Masokisme

Salah 1 kontroversi terkini adalah soal kampanye kondom oleh kementerian kesehatan. Banyak yang kontra, tak setuju dengan hal ini. Mereka benar soal 1 hal. Mereka benar bahwa ini bukan cuma soal kondom, ini adalah soal "sex bebas." Namun mereka meneruskannya dengan bilang ini adalah soal "moral bangsa" soal "mencegah kebejatan" bla bla bla. 

Bukan. Ini bukan soal itu. Ini soal beberapa glintir control-freak berusaha meng-atur² urusan sex orang lain.

Kedaulatan Nasional, Harga Diri Bangsa

Para tiran seperti Gaddafi, Assad, Kim Jong Il, dll biasanya terus menerus meng-ulang² frase "Kedaulatan nasional" dan "harga diri bangsa" ketika berpidato. Serius nih?

1) Negara yang dipimpin seorang tiran TIDAK PUNYA kedaulatan nasional

Perhatikan deh, memangnya siapa yang membuat keputusan di negara macam itu? Yup, cuma si tiran. Semua yang protes dan tak setuju pasti dibui atau ditembak mati. Yang negara² tsb miliki adalah kedaulatan Assad, kedaulatan Gaddafi, dst.

2) "Harga diri bangsa" saat itu sedang di-injak² oleh sang tiran

Perhatikan lagi point #1. Praktis sang tiran berkata L'etat c'est moi, negara adalah SAYA. Memang siapa dia? Hei, breaking news buat bapak tiran: ini abad 21 bukan abad 16.Arogan sekali menyatakan dirinya adalah personifikasi bangsanya! Maaf yah, bangsa anda itu JAUH lebih mulia, jauh lebih besar, tidak sesempit pribadi anda.

Maaf saja pak tiran, fakta bahwa anda sesuku/sebangsa/seagama dengan orang yang anda bantai, TIDAK MEMBUAT anda boleh membantai mereka. Fakta bahwa ada "orang luar" berusaha menghentikan pembantaian itu TIDAK MEMBUAT usaha menghentikan pembantaian tsb jadi ilegal atau imoral.

Resep jadi Kaya

Banyak orang ber-tanya², bagaimana sih caranya jadi kaya. Saya sih tak tertarik jadi kaya per se, tapinya saya tahu setidaknya 3 cara halal untuk jadi kaya. 

Opsi pertama:
(1) Belajar bahasa Inggris
(2) Pindah ke Dutch Harbor, Alaska
(3) Bekerjalah sbg nelayan yang menangkap kepiting Alaska
(4) Gak perlu ijazah tinggi², anda bisa mendapat penghasilan RIBUAN DOLAR perbulannya! Sungguh!
(5) Masalahnya, ini adalah pekerjaan paling berbahaya di dunia. Musim menangkap kepiting terbaik adalah musim badai juga. Yup. Musim badai di Alaska.

Opsi kedua:
(1) Belajar las
(2) Belajar menyelam
(3) Belajar las bawah air!
(4) Bekerjalah sbg tukang las bawah air! Honornya jutaan loh perjamnya!

Polanya jelaskan? 
1) Identifikasi pekerjaan yang bergaji tinggi.
2) Identifkasi keahlian yang dibutuhkan untuk pekerjaan tsb.
3) Mulailah melamar dan bekerja!

OK, itu tadi adalah opsi menjadi kaya sbg pegawai. Bagaimana kalau anda mau menjadi kaya sbg wiraswasta/wirausaha/entrepreneur? Jangan kawatir, ada opsi ketiga:
1) Cari tahu apa yang dibutuhkan masyarakat, yang mustahil/sulit disediakan oleh orang lain.
2) Mulai jualan hal tsb.

Gak gampangkan? Yah iyalah, memangnya saya siapa? Robert Kiyosaki? C'est la vie!

Melempar Batu Pertama

Salah 1 cerita Yesus yang paling terkenal adalah ketika dia membela seorang penzinah yang hendak dirajam. Yesus menghentikan perajaman tsb dengan berkata:

"Biarlah dia yang tak berdosa melemparkan batu pertama."

Kata² ini sering diparafrasekan menjadi:

"Janganlah menghakimi sesamamu."

OK ... ini salah 1 sebab saya keluar dari agama Kristen. Jangan salah, saya tetap tak setuju seorang penzinah dirajam, sayangnya pembelaan Yesus juga bermasalah. Kenapa? 

Sederhana saja, kalau kata² ini kita ikuti sungguh², tak boleh ada penjara, polisi, jaksa, hakim, UU, konstitusi dan lain². Hei, tak boleh menghakimikan? Biarkan dia yang tak berdosa melempar batu pertamakan? Apa hak kita menghakimi? Kitakan cuma sekumpulan manusia berdosa yang tak tahu apa² ...

Ini dia masalah utamanya: menghakimi orang lain itu PERLU. Bukannya menyerang penghakiman yang tak adil, Yesus malah menyerang penghakiman manusia. Manusia² yang tak sempurna ini WAJIB menghakimi 1 sama lain, saling mengingatkan kalau mereka berbuat kesalahan. Menyatakan mereka TAK BOLEH menghakimi sesama, sama saja dengan melakukan pensensoran TOTAL menyeluruh.

Maaf saja, saya justru MAU dihakimi oleh sesama, dan semua manusia juga sebaiknya belajar bagaimana menghakimi orang lain dengan bijak DAN belajar dihakimi oleh orang lain. Itu gunanya demokrasi, kebebasan pers, konstitusi, UU, polisi, hakim, jaksa, dan pengacarakan? Makanya saya tak setuju "kesempurnaan" Yesus.

Charles Carreon vs The Internet

Wow ... just WOW!!

Remember how Charles Carreon picked a fight with everybody on the internet? He goes even further!

This time he wanted to drag Twitter and Ars Technica to the fight!

On the other hand ... the Electronic Frontier Foundation also join the fight ... by supporting Inman.

Oh yeah, he also admit that his legal letter to Inman was based on false information, therefore implying that he disclosed some confidential communication with his client (FunnyJunk.)

Oh boy ... it's gonna be interesting. (Pulling a chair, and pick my popcorn.) This is even funnier than any new Holywood movie! Bring it on mr. Carreon!

Separatisme di Papua

From Wikipedia

Beberapa orang menuntut kebebasan. Bagus. Saya bisa mengerti, kebebasan adalah salah 1 esensi terdasar seorang manusia. Kebebasan juga sangat diperlukan untuk mekanisme saling mengoreksi. Saya dukung penuh.

Namun, beberapa orang menuntut "Kemerdekaan." Saya taruh di dalam tanda kutip sebab kemerdekaan ini adalah kemerdekaan politis, mendirikan negara baru. Khusus untuk  Indonesia, teriakan meminta kemerdekaan paling banyak disuarakan dari daerah paling Timurnya, Papua.

Maaf, saya tak bisa mendukungnya. Argumen bahwa kemerdekaan politis Papua itu adalah ide buruk terlalu kuat. Berikut adalah alasan²nya ...

1) Kemerdekaan meningkatkan risiko konflik
Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler sudah melakukan penelitian kuantitatif tentang risiko konflik. Hasil penelitian mereka jelas: makin kecil sebuah negara, makin besar risiko konfliknya. Oh iya, risiko konflik juga meningkat ketika daerah tsb memiliki kekayaan alam. Jadi, kita bisa mengasumsikan seandainya Papua merdeka, daerah tsb akan mengalami konflik yang lebih parah daripada konflik yang ada saat ini. 

2) Kemerdekaan BUKAN JAMINAN penghapusan korupsi
Terlalu sering para "pejuang" separatisme menggunakan korupsi pemerintah saat ini untuk mengobarkan kebencian. Lihat saja ke negara² baru yang ada di seluruh dunia. Banyak di antara mereka terjebak dalam pemerintahan korup SETELAH mereka merdeka. Zimbabwe adalah contoh terextrimnya. Mau jadi Zimbabwe?

Kalau anda berpikir "Biar melarat asal merdeka!" langsung ke point #4.

3) Kemerdekaan MENURUNKAN daya tawar
Semua orang dengan akal sehat setuju kontrak pertambangan di daerah Papua itu tak adil. Seandainya Papua merdeka, kontrak tak adil itu memang null and void alias tidak berlaku lagi. Namun, memangnya kontrak baru pasti akan menguntungkan rakyat Papua? Sebaliknya, pemerintah Papua akan memiliki posisi tawar yang lebih lemah daripada pemerintah Indonesia, sebab mereka CUMA mewakili rakyat Papua, bukan 240 juta rakyat Indonesia.

Seandainya pemerintah baru memilih melakukan nasionalisasi sumber² daya alam mereka, kita kembali ke masalah #2.

Oh iya, pengelolaan sumber daya alam juga BUKAN CUMA masalah korupsi, tapi masalah ekonomi makro maupun mikro. Kalaupun pemerintahnya bersih, tapi tak mengerti ekonomi, bakalannya melarat juga. Baca tulisan saya di majalah Bhinneka tentang pengelolaan kekayaan alam. Ujung²nya, balik lagi ke posisi tawar.

4) Menuntut Kemerdekaan itu sebetulnya secara filosofis adalah rasis.
Semua pasti sadar dan setuju bahwa pendapat "Kita adalah etnis penguasa, etnis lokal itu tak bisa dipercaya" adalah rasis. Namun, memangnya anggapan bahwa "semua orang non-Papua cuma akan memeras orang Papua" itu tidak rasis? Memangnya berpikir "Dia itu sebangsa dengan saya, dia tak mungkin mengkorupsi uang pajak saya!" itu tidak rasis?

Terlalu sering kita menerapkan standard ganda dengan berpikir cuma yang kuat yang bisa berpikir & bertindak rasis. Nope. Yang lemahpun bisa rasis. Dan rasisme mereka juga sama salahnya. "Two wrongs doesn't make a right." Daripada sibuk menerapkan rasisme balik, lebih baik HAPUSKAN RASISME seandainya ada rasisme di pemerintah pusat.

Masih berpikir lebih baik merdeka daripada makmur di bawah negara lain? Masih berpikir "Biar melarat asal merdeka"? LANJUT!!

5) "Biar Melarat asal merdeka" terdengar heroik, sayangnya ...
bukan si pemimpin yang melarat. Rakyatnya yang melarat. Sadar, bukan cuma politikus dari ras atau etnis lain yang bisa memanfaatkanmu, SEMUA POLITIKUS bisa melakukannya. Oh, anda pikir politikus dari ras/etnis lain lebih mungkin membuat rakyat anda melarat? Balik lagi ke poin 4: berarti anda rasis.

6) Intinya: Kemerdekaan malah membuat proses perbaikan lebih panjang, lebih sulit
Skenario kemerdekaan Papua:
Situasi buruk saat ini -> Perjuangan kemerdekaan yang berat -> Kemerdekaan -> Perjuangan berat melawan korupsi & ketidak mampuan -> kemakmuran

Skenario Papua tetap berada dalam NKRI:
Situasi buruk saat ini -> Perjuangan berat melawan korupsi & ketidak mampuan -> kemakmuran

Sudah jelaskan bahwa skenario kemerdekaan itu lebih rumit, dan sulit? Jadi, daripada menghabiskan waktu, energi, dan bahkan nyawa untuk memperjuangkan kemerdekaan, langsung saja gunakan semua itu untuk melawan korupsi dan ketidak mampuan pemerintah NKRI. Bukan cuma Papua, rakyat di Jawa, Sumatera, Bali, dan pulau² lain juga menderita karena korupsi dan ketidak mampuan pemerintah pusat. Pemerintah NKRI yang bersih dan berkemampuan akan menguntungkan semua rakyat Indonesia. ITU yang harus kita perjuangkan, bukannya kemerdekaan daerah².

The Oatmeal, Funnyjunk, Carreon, and the Internet

Theoatmeal.com, maintained by Matthew Inman is one of the websites that I routinely checked. Why not? It is witty, funny, and repeatedly hits bullseye, so it makes my day frequently. 

In 2011, Inman complained about funnyjunk posting his works without any attribution. Inman was too lazy to make a legal complained about that problem, so he only posted the complain on theoatmeal.com. After some hassles with Funnyjunk and its reader, basically all of them decided that the matter wouldn't worth the hassle of lawsuits. Or so it seems ...

Fast forward to 2012, almost exactly one year after that complain, suddenly Inman received a letter from Funnyjunk lawyer, Charles Carreon. In essence, funnyjunk accuses Inman of defamation, then ordered him to erase all mentioning of funnyjunk from theoatmeal.com, and as the final insult, ordered him to pay $20.000,00. 

Unlike many others, Inman refused to back down. He responded not only by contacting a lawyer and send funnyjunk a legal response, but also by starting not one, but TWO charities while giving funnyjunk the finger. Surprised, surprised, the donation reached $ 20.000 in an hour, and most internet turn against funnyjunk, including many funnyjunk readers. 

That was the time for funnyjunk and their lawyer to backdown. But no. Not for Carreon. He want to continue this hassle by doing interviews with medias like MSNBC, and Forbes, declaring that he is the champion of justice who is bullied by Inman. He pointed out that Inman's response to his legal threat hurt his feeling. Geez, looks like Carreon took "the never quit" mantra too seriously. Then Carreon upped the ante by suing not only Inman, but also American Cancer Society and National Wildlife Federation because these 2 organizations will receive the charity money from Inman, and Indiegogo, since Indiegogo is the service provider for Inman's charity and it refused to bow to Carreon to take the charity down. Congratulation, Carreon just make the whole internet his enemy.

Because all of this, the internet digging deeper. They want to know more about Carreon. They found out easily that Carreon maintains another website, other than his official website for his legal practice. That other website posted a cartoon depicting George W. Bush make love with Condolezza Rice. Remember how Carreon said Inman's drawing hurt his feeling? And if that is not enough, everyone pointed out the contradiction of Carreon's statement that he is an internet-expert lawyer with the fact that he stated that he was surprised by the internet reaction to him in one of the interview. Looks like Carreon will find the word "ironic" mentioned together with his name ad nauseam.

So, what kind of lesson can we learned from this fiasco?

1) Lazyness or kindness is not equal to weakness.

This is a mistake that a bully often makes. They are often too confident, thinking they will get everything easily. Funnyjunk think Inman's lazyness or kindness is sign of his weakness. They found how wrong they are, unfortunately they learned the hard way.

2) Fight back the bully.

Since bully often do mistake #1, they often surprised when their target hit back. Fight back. The essence of a good offense is maximum power of ours in the opponent's weakest point. Hit back creatively. Hit back where the bully never imagined before. That means, after creatively found their weakest point, hit back as hard as possible. 

3) While in a fight STAY FOCUS!

Only an idiot starts a 2-front war. Only a lobotomized idiot starts a 10 front wars after already have a 2-front war. By suing Indiegogo, National Wildlife Federation and American Cancer Society, Carreon changed the nature of the fight. Now, instead of fighting against Inman and his fans, he has to fight those 3 organizations and the whole internet. 

4) Once again, "never quit" is not a good rule of thumb.

Just quit now Mr. Carreon. It is hurtful to see you embarassed yourself. Inman also offered you the same advice. Really. You still have the chance.

UPDATE: Carreon really likes to fight the whole internet!

Irak dan Amerika Serikat

Pendapat dari Kanan/Konservatif:

Perang Irak adalah langkah yang benar. Saddam adalah tiran yang pantas dijatuhkan. Amerika sudah berbuat benar dengan mendepak Saddam. GO AMERICA, GO!!

Pendapat dari Kiri/Liberal/Sosialis:

Perang Irak adalah kesalahan. Amerika tak berhak ikut campur di negara orang lain. Amerika cuma mengincar minyak di Irak. Bukan cuma perang di Irak, SEMUA PERANG adalah kesalahan!! Make love, not war!! 

Pendapat saya:

Perang Irak adalah kesalahan. Saddam adalah seorang tiran mengerikan, tapi Amerika juga punya batas sumber daya, mereka seharusnya mengatur prioritas mereka dengan lebih bijak.

Biarpun Saddam membunuh banyak rakyatnya, dia praktis sudah sangat lemah dibandingkan tiran² lain setelah pasukannya dihancurkan dalam perang teluk pertama. Di sisi lain, Iran & Korea Utara menindas rakyat mereka dan jauh lebih berbahaya bagi negara² lain. Kalau Amerika memang serius hendak menghancurkan tirani, mereka seharusnya menyerbu Iran atau Korea Utara.

Namun, biarpun invasi tsb adalah kesalahan prioritas, mendepak Saddam adalah langkah positif untuk dunia, dan untuk rakyat Irak sendiri. Para leftist biasanya membuat counter menghitung jumlah korban konflik di Irak, dan membebankannya ke pemerintah Amerika Serikat. Mereka biasanya tak menyertakan di counter mereka jumlah rakyat Irak yang mati di tangan Saddam Hussein dan yang BISA MATI di tangan Saddam Hussein seandainya dia tak didepak. Seperti biasa, perang mencabut banyak nyawa. Dan untuk kasus Irak, perang juga menyelamatkan BANYAK nyawa .

Oh, satu lagi yang penting: tentang senjata pemusnah massal di Irak. Saddam Hussein tak pernah menyangkal dia punya senjata pemusnah massal. Dia sengaja berbohong untuk menggertak lawan²nya. Dia tak menyangka kebohongannya itu menjadi alasan utama Amerika Serikat menyerbunya. Salah sendiri. Semua sudah tahu Saddam itu monster, membiarkan dia memiliki senjata pemusnah massal sama saja seperti membiarkan seorang gangster yang biasanya menghajar orang² di sekitarnya dengan pentungan, mengimport senapan mesin. Sikat dulu, tanya belakangan, risikonya terlalu tinggi.


Itu juga sebabnya Iran seharusnya menjadi sasaran utama. Balik lagi ke argumen pertama saya: Iran jauh lebih mungkin mendapatkan dan menggunakan senjata pemusnah massal mereka dibandingkan Irak yang sudah terisolasi dan tertekan sangsi ekonomi.


Akhir kata, saya mau tegaskan lagi:
Shame on you W! Now USA doesn't have enough money, firepower, and political power to unilaterally invade Iran!

Bullshit Building 8: Chinese Ghost Towns

In the ending of the my 3rd bullshit building article, I already mentioned that the Chinese elites haven't succeeded in dispelling the stereotype. Since "8" is such glorious number in Chinese tradition, I decided to continue the Chinese bullshit in this 8th installment of Bullshit Building series.

The year is 2007. After they unsuccessfully dispel the Chinese stereotype with their bullshit mall, the Chinese elites met again. They need to top the bullshit mall with something even grander, something that is far more epic. Finally, they agreed to build ... a bullshit city!!

The Beginning

They had their doubt at that time, because the worldwide economic crisis had just began. They knew that the building of anything could act as a stimulus for their economy, helping lessened the negative effect of the crisis, therefore undermining the bullshitness of the city. That doubt vaporized when one of them screamed "We WILL BUILD MULTIPLE BULLSHIT CITIES!! Nobody could mistake our bullshit if we build bullshit cities EVERYWHERE, in every corner of our country! Nobody would think we build it for wise stimulus if we build bullshit cities like crazy!"

Thus the first foundation of bullshit cities was laid.

Empty street of Zhengzhou New District

Thames Town

The Result
By 2012, the Chinese government already build multiple cities in every corner of their territory. Nearby the Mongolian borders, they built Ordos. Near Shanghai, in Songjiang district, they built "Thames Town," complete with the English guards! In Kunming prefecture, they built the Chenggong District.  In Henan province, they expanded the city of Zhengzhou, erecting "Zhenghou new district". See, they build bullshit cities everywhere! And that is not the complete list! We are talking about gigantic effort to dispel stereotype here, we have to think BIG! Very big!

All of these projects produce the desirable results: bullshit cities. You could see from the photos that all of these cities are still empty. Cities designed for hundred thousands people are filled only by several thousand people. Most of them are governtment officials. Remember the eerie feeling you felt when walking on the empty New South China mall? Multiply that by 100 since we are talking about city-scale bullshit here.

Zhengzhou New District from above

Chenggong from above

The people of China themselves are not amused. Many of them lived in cramped old flats in the dusty & overcrowded old cities. They really want to move to this new cities. Unfortunately, they don't have enough money to buy a flat there. Yup. To make sure this bullshit is really bullshit, speculators own most of the flats in this new cities, driving the price of every flats higher and higher. You think the burst of the real estate bubble in the US that caused world financial meltdown is bad? Wait till this bubble burst! You will sea world finance exploded, the explosion will be so great that its heat will melt the ice caps of Greenland!

An empty street in Ordos

Another empty street in Ordos

Another Theory
I have another theory why they build so many empty towns. Perhaps they practice Feng Shui in their whole country! Somewhere in their Feng Shui books they have to have this line:

"If you want to receive the positive Qi from the whole universe, build tons of bullshit cities in every corner of your country!"

This line spurred them to building frenzy that still last until today. Yup. You read it correctly, they are building new houses, malls, monuments, etc in those empty ghost towns. Either they really believe their Feng Shui, OR they really just want to show the world that they can be that stupid. Either way, the bullshit still continues until today.

Let's just hope this ends before it drags and buries the whole world.

Addendum 18.10.2012:
Some people utilize Ordos as skateboarding heaven!



Previous Bullshit Building: Patuxai Triumphal Arch
Next Bullshit Building: Every Statue of the Worst Tyrant

Picture sources:
metagini.com
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-ghost-cities-2011-5?op=1
http://doznajemo.com/2012/03/26/sablasni-grad-duhova-u-kini-je-li-dosao-kraj-ekonomskog-buma-fotovideo/

Never Quit?

There are too many cliches that people taken for granted. One example, many people thought that "never quit" is a good rule of thumb. That's why after I received the picture on the right from 2 of my facebook friends, I finally have enough and decided to write this article.

Geez, you guys really reading too much motivational materials. Please, this cliche is, at best, only a half truth.

If John Romero knew his limit, gave up his bullshit dream, and didn't even start his bullshit Ion Storm company, he wouldn't be embarrassed by the "Daikatana."

 If Adolf Hitler realized that human will has limitation, and quit after he got Austria & Cekoslovakia, he wouldn't bashed his army with the gigantic Soviet Red Army.

 If John Franklin knew that he took the wrong route, decided that it's not worth the risk and quit, he and his expedition may survive.

 If Napoleon quit earlier after he defeated the Prussian and made peace with the Russian, he would marginalized the British, defeat them without further war, and shaped Europe as he likes.

 Sometimes, "never quit" is the stupidest decision a man could take. Sometimes, a man should examined everything and said "This is bullshit, I will jeopardize everything if I don't quit now."

 Using "never quit" as a rule of thumb is essentially assuming that you are a perfect God who will never ever make a mistake. News flash: YOU ARE NOT!! You are only a normal homo sapiens who could make stupid decision. Every time you make such decision, quit before too late. No, often quitting is not enough, often you need to hit the reverse gear as hard as possible.

Instead of using "never quit" as the rule of thumb, I used self-introspection and risk assessment:

1) What are the risks? What are the potential rewards?

2) What are their odds? 

3) What is the opinion of reliable-impartial true experts (EXPERTS!! not one single expert.) about this matter?

4) How I could increase the odds of success?

5) What sacrifice I have to take if I quit? If I continue?

And so on.

After running through that introspection-assessment, decide whether to quit or to continue. Deciding to always continue based on "never quit mantra" is just suicidal.

Here is one last thing a person who "never quit" also never do ... get ready:
APOLOGIZE 

Yup. Apologize. Not only by saying "I am sorry," because talk is cheap, but giving TRUE apology. If you apologize, you admit that you screwed up, and you have to quit, otherwise your apology is not sincere. That's why I want to punch every single motivational-speaker on their face. They ONLY speak about the nice possibilities without discussing any risk, creating obnoxious douchebags, each of these douchebags think that they are a perfect God who could never make a mistake. That's why I also hate their pompous audiences who brags that they listen to those motivational speakers AND belittling others who pointed out the bullshitness of their rhetorics as "Quitter." They lack a certain thing that we call "humility". 

 So, still thinking that "never quit" is a good rule of thumb?

Trinitas yang Mustahil

BUKAN, sekali lagi artikel ini BUKAN membahas trinitas dalam agama Kristen. Itu masalah yang berbeda sama sekali. Ini masalah makroekonomi.

Banyak orang ber-tanya², kenapa kita harus punya banyak mata uang sih? Kenapa seluruh dunia tidak menggunakan 1 mata uang tunggal saja? Bukankah itu lebih mudah? Bukankah itu akan menghapuskan semua masalah lonjakan nilai mata uang?

Jawabannya: karena adanya "Impossible trinity" atau "trinitas yang mustahil" atau trilemma.

Begini, ada 3 hal penting dalam kebijakan mata uang:
A) Kemampuan melawan depresi atau resesi
B) Kestabilan nilai mata uang
C) Kebebasan mengalirkan modal

Ketiganya penting, sayangnya, sebuah negara CUMA BISA memiliki maksimum 2. Memiliki ketiganya adalah kemustahilan. Mari kita lihat detilnya ...


Opsi A & B

Kalau sebuah negara hendak memiliki kemampuan melawan depresi/resesi DAN mata uang yang stabil, mereka akan menggunakan "fix exchange rate" atau "adjustable peg" untuk mengatur mata uang mereka. Artinya, mereka mau tak mau harus menerapkan "capital control" yang membatasi aliran modal. Republik Rakyat Cina saat ini melakukan hal ini. Kelemahannya: capital control ini otomatis membuka peluang korupsi, dan inefisiensi. Pemerintah juga bisa mengeluarkan banyak uang untuk mempertahankan nilai mata uangnya ketika nilainya anjlok. Ingatkan ketika krisis ekonomi Asia Indonesia, Thailand, dan negara² Asia lainnya pontang panting menghabiskan cadangan devisanya untuk mempertahankan nilai mata uang mereka? Itulah konsekuensinya berusaha mempertahankan nilai mata uang.

Opsi A & C

Kalau sebuah negara hendak memiliki kemampuan melawan depresi atau resesi sambil memiliki kebebasan mengalirkan modal, mereka akan menerapkan mata uang bebas mengambang, seperti yang dilakukan Amerika Serikat. Tentu saja mata uang bebas mengambang nilainya fluktuatif, mengikuti pasar, sehingga kestabilannya tidaklah pasti. Kekurangannya: semua rencana bisnis bisa runyam kalau mata uang negara tsb mendadak menguat atau melemah tajam.

Opsi B & C

Kalau sebuah negara hendak memiliki mata uang yang stabil dan kebebasan mengalirkan modal, mereka akan menyatukan mata uangnya dengan negara lain seperti negara² Eropa menyatukan mata uang mereka menjadi Euro. Tapi itu berarti mereka kehilangan kemampuan melawan depresi atau resesi! Paul Krugman dan banyak ekonom lain terus mengingatkan, kalau saja Yunani saat ini tidak bergabung dalam Euro, nilai mata uangnya pasti akan turun, dan ini akan menggairahkan ekonominya, meredakan resesi.

Mata uang tunggal untuk 1 dunia

Nah, kembali ke pertanyaan pertama, soal mata uang tunggal untuk seluruh dunia. Kalau seluruh dunia menggunakan satu mata uang, berarti seluruh dunia memilih Opsi B&C: mata uang stabil, kebebasan mengalirkan modal terjamin, tapi tak ada kemampuan melawan depresi atau resesi. Kenapa kemampuan tsb hilang? Ini karena kebijakan moneter yang cocok untuk 1 daerah sangat mungkin tak cocok untuk daerah yang lain. 

Coba ingat²: kapan sih bank sentral 1 negara membuat kebijakan yang PERSIS SAMA dengan bank sentral negara lain? Jepang misalnya, kapan bank sentralnya membuat kebijakan yang sama dengan bank sentral Indonesia? Atau Amerika? Atau Rusia? Atau Cina?

Contoh lebih kongkritnya, kita lihat 20 tahun terakhir ini, mari bandingkan ekonomi 2 raksasa ekonomi yang bertetangga: Cina dan Jepang. Ketika ekonomi jepang mengalami stagflasi, ekonomi Cina malah sedang booming. Kalau mata uang mereka sama, artinya kebijakan mereka akan sama. Kalau bank sentral Cina-Jepang menurunkan suku bunga, ekonomi jepang yang butuh stimulasi sudah pasti membaik. Namun, itu berarti membuat ekonomi Cina overheating!! Inflasi di Cina akan menggila, bubble² ekonomi akan terbentuk!! Sebaliknya, kalau suku bunga Cina-Jepang dinaikkan, ekonomi Cina akan terbantu, bubble² ekonomi akan kempes dengan sehat, inflasi akan berada dalam taraf wajar. Namun, ini membunuh ekonomi jepang! Ekonomi lagi lesu orang² malah diberi insentif untuk menyimpan uang mereka di bank? Macet dah ekonominya! Kalau bank sentral memilih tak melakukan apa², alias tidak mengubah suku bunga, stagflasi Jepang akan makin dalam, sementara ekonomi Cina akan overheating! 

Karena itulah dalam ilmu ekonomi ada yang namanya OCA, "Optimum Currency Area," seberapa besarkah area yang optimum untuk 1 mata uang? Jawabannya beraneka ragam, tapi sudah pasti BUKAN 1 dunia.

Jadi, ketidak sempurnaan di dunia ini begitu umum, sampai² kebijakan ekonomi makro saja tak bisa ada yang ideal. Kita cuma bisa meminimalisir kelemahan² pilihan kita, bukannya menghapus semua kelemahannya lalu "live happily ever after."

Bacaan: The Return of Depression Economics oleh Paul Krugman.

Street Racing

WARNING, STRONG LANGUAGE!!

I watched F1 around during the last Schumacher vs Hakinnen years. I never like to play with cars, but my brother is a car junkie, and my father is a mechanical enthusiast. They explained to me how car engine works, and thinks like relation between exhaust and efficiency. Heck, my brother even explain the basic theory of “How to Drag Race like a pro.” Really, I have nothing against fast car racing against another race car. I have nothing against car enthusiast that modify their car to increase their performance. I salute all F1, rally, and NASCAR racer as skillful and professional worker.

Para Peramal

Masyarakat Indonesia itu masih percaya saja pada peramal. Masih banyak orang Indonesia bilang "Peramal A hebat"lah, "Peramal B akurat"lah, dan sejenisnya.

(Menghela napas.)

Jadi peramal itu gampang, gak perlu wangsit, gak perlu kekuatan supranatural, gak perlu tapa di goa, cuma perlu kemampuan sandiwara dan latihan sedikit. Nih beberapa tehnik dasar yang dipakai para peramal untuk membaca masa depan maupun masa lalu kliennya "dengan akurat":

1) SHOTGUNNING

Memberikan ramalan kabur, tak jelas, yang bisa di-cocok²an dengan kenyataan. Misalnya, ramalan astrologi di koran biasanya berbunyi "Anda bulan ini akan menerima rejeki." Hah? Rejeki apa? Namanya juga kehidupan, ada keberuntungan, ada kemalangan. Menyatakan anda akan beruntung sebetulnya tak mereamalkan apa².

2) MACHINE-GUNNING

Berikan 100 tebakan/ramalan, si klien tidak akan peduli pada 99 tebakan/ramalan yang salah, dia cuma akan mendengar 1 tebakan/ramalan yang benar! Di acara Penn & Teller: Bullshit, seorang peramal "jago" diliput untuk mewawancarai beberapa orang ibu². Ketika wawancara berlangsung, tak ada yang menyadari si peramal sudah menebak pekerjaan si ibu 10 kali, sebelum akhirnya berhasil menebaknya dengan benar. 

3) COLD READING

Ajak obrol kliennya. Tanpa sadar si klien akan memberikan banyak informasi. Ingat baik² informasi ini, sampaikan ulang ke si klien dg kata² berbeda. Kebanyakan orang akan takjub dengan "kehebatan" si peramal.

4) HOT READING

Sebelum bertemu dengan klien, si peramal sudah mencari informasi tentang si klien itu dengan berbagai cara. Beberapa peramal bahkan menyewa orang untuk ikut mengantri di ruang tunggu, mengajak ngobrol si klien. Semua informasi yang didapat dari obrolan ini tentu saja akan disampaikan pada si peramal.

Masih banyak tehnik lain, tapi intinya:
ketelitian + kemampuan memanfaatkan celah psikologis = Kekuatan meramal !!

Jadi, tertarik untuk jadi peramal? Masih tertarik untuk diramal?

Israel dan Timur Tengah

Salah 1 topik terpanas yang paling sering diteriakkan para pendemo dari ormas² Islam adalah masalah Israel vs Palestina. Semua demo tsb sudah pasti mengutuk Israel. Semua demo tsb sudah pasti dipenuhi caci maki thd Yahudi. Saya ingin berbagi beberapa informasi yang rasanya jarang diketahui oleh para pendemo ini. Biar saya tekankan, saya membicarakan PRIA MUSLIM. Bukan Muslimah, bukan orang Yahudi, bukan orang orang Druze, dan orang² lain yang tak mendapatkan kesempatan juga di negeri² Timur Tengah lainnya.

Di negara Timur Tengah manakah rakyat jelata Muslim punya suara?

Ketika seorang (pria) Muslim di daerah Timur Tengah tidak suka pada pemerintahnya, dimanakah dia bisa dengan aman menyuarakan ketidak sukaannya? Ketika seorang Muslim dari Timur Tengah tidak mau pemimpinnya yang sekarang berkuasa lagi, dimanakah dia bisa menjatuhkan pemimpin tsb dg legal, tanpa pertumpahan darah?

Jawaban: cuma di Israel. Dan Republik sekuler Turki (To a lesser degree.).Sungguh. LSM Freedomhouse mencatat, cuma negara Israel yang bisa disebut "free." Memangnya di negara Arab manalagi penduduk Muslimnya bisa mengritik dan mengoreksi pemerintahannya tanpa menggunakan kudeta atau perang saudara? 

Demokrasi memang jauh dari sempurna. Namun, mengganti pemerintahan via pemilu JAUH lebih baik daripada mengganti pemerintah via kudeta dan perang saudara seperti di negara² non-demokrasi. Saya sudah pernah menulis soal ini di artikel "Demokrasi dan Kemakmuran."

Di Negara Timur Tengah manakah wartawan Muslim bisa dengan bebas meliput dan mempublikasikan kesalahan pemerintahnya?

Di negara Timur Tengah manakah wartawan (Muslim) bisa dengan bebas merekam dan mempublikasikan kesalahan pemerintahannya? Ketika seorang Muslim dari Timur Tengah melihat pemerintahnya melakukan ketidak adilan, penipuan, korupsi, dll, dimanakah dia bisa membongkarnya di surat kabar? Dimanakah surat kabar bisa dg aman mempublikasi kebusukan² pemerintah? Yup. Cuma di Israel.

Israel lagi² menjadi satu²nya negara di daerah Timur Tengah yang memiliki kebebasan pers.

Ini sebabnya kenapa liputan "kekejian Israel" bisa dengan mudah didapatkan SEMUA orang: pemerintah mereka memberikan kebebasan siapapun untuk meliput apapun di negeri mereka. Bandingkan dengan negeri² lain. Itu sebabnya juga mengritik Israel menjadi GAMPANG, sementara mengritik negara² Timur Tengah lain sulit.

Di negara Timur Tengah manakah Muslim bisa hidup dengan tenang biarpun agamanya berbeda dengan agama pemerintahnya?

Di Iran, mustahil seorang (pria) Muslim Sunni menjadi seorang menteri.

Di Arab Saudi, mustahil seorang Muslim Shiah menjadi gubernur.

Di Iraq, sampai sekarang mereka masih ribut tentang pembagian kekuasaan Sunni dan Shiah.

Cuma di Israel semua aliran Muslim bisa dengan tenang beribadah, punya hak dan kewajiban setara, bahkan bisa menjadi menteri dan anggota parlemen.

Sekali lagi, yang bisa menyaingi Israel cuma Turki ... yang sekuler.

Kesimpulan

Israel memang tidak sempurna. Sama seperti pemerintah² lain, mereka masih punya politikus korup, militer & polisi mereka masih tak luput dari kesalahan, dll. Namun kalau anda memang peduli pada rakyat Muslim di daerah Timur Tengah, harusnya anda meminta pemerintah² lain di daerah itu MENIRU Israel, bukannya teriak² memaki Israel. "Negara Yahudi" itu memang perlu dikritisi juga seperti negara² lain, tapi harus proporsional. Masalah terbesar dunia Arab adalah NEGARA² ARAB, bukan Israel.

Bullshit Building 7: Patuxai Triumphal Arch

What came into your mind when you hear "Laos"? My guess, it won't be far from "Vietnam war" or "very poor landlocked country in Southeast Asia." That was even more true during the 1950s-1970s.

The Beginning

After its independence in early 1950s, the king of Laos and his prime minister knew that their country needed many things badly. Other than extreme poverty experienced by most of their people, a communist threat loomed from their Eastern neighbor and local guerrillas. So, to overcome this challenge they decided to build ... a large triumphal arch.

Yup, despite the incursions and sometimes outright invasion from North Vietnam AND poverty, they decided to build a monument to celebrate victory! I think they believe that celebrating victory in spite of severe problems would create victory. The Laotian people really need a positive mindset, what better way to inspire it other than counting your eggs before you buy your chicken? Brilliant!

But there was one problem though ... how could they got the funding?

Ah ... the Americans already provided some money and materials for the construction of the new airport! Those stupid and arrogant westerners, how could they dictate a sovereign country like Laos? A triumphal arch is far more important than an airport. Problem solved!

The only drawback with this solution is, people sarcastically called the new arch "vertical runway."

The Design & Construction

Unlike the Arc de Triomphe, this arch has 2 gateways, not one, oriented toward the 4 cardinal direction. On top of it, they erected 5 towers, representing 5 Buddhist principles of amiability, flexibility, honesty, honor, and prosperity. Holy Jesus Christ on a pogo stick, did these people understand irony?

Sorry my mistake, my bad. I should have said "Holy enlightened Buddha, in a casino, did these people understand irony?"

Other than those ironic symbolization of its towers, the arch also has so many other Buddhist-Laotian icons. Right in front of each gate, they built a pond representing an open Lotus flower. It supposed to symbolized the bravery of the Laotian people. I think this is too much. A timid man could not embezzled money like this and show it off to the whole world.

They also erected 4 statues of "Naga" that sprays jetwater into the ponds, symbolizing nature, fertility, welfare and happiness. Seriously? Now I am sure there is no Laotian words for irony.

Other than that, the arch also functions as a museum and observation deck. From its central and tallest tower, people can get a birdview of the capital of Laos. See, with a view like this, how could an airport be more worthy?

The construction took 11 years (1957-1968), during the Vietnam war (1955 - 1975). That means the Laotian kingdom really thought that this arch was truly the highest priority, even higher than the war next door.

The End

After the North Vietnam victory in Vietnam war, the communist managed to overthrow Laotian government. This surprised everyone, including the communists. The communist took over everything, including the triumphal arch, giving it the name "Patuxai" or Arc de Triomphe in French. That means, all the benefits from the colossal arch is reaped by the communist, not its builder, completing the bullshit.

Previous Bullshit Building: The Ryugyong Hotel
Next Bullshit Building: Chinese Ghost Towns 

NOT a Bullshit Building: The Maginot Line

One of the turret in the Maginot Line

One colossal building that many people think is a bullshit building: The Maginot Line of France. I disagree with that. I'll make this article to refute that notion.

The Beginning & The Design

The country of France in 1930 faced a problem: she is very close with Germany, while has dwindling demographic. The hero of the first world war, Marshall Joffre, suggested to build a fortification line along the border with Germany to compensate for this weakness. Mandy modern-oriented military leaders, e.g.; Charles de Gaulle, disagreed with this plan, but Joffre's plan prevailed.

The fortification was not one single solid wall like the ancient Chinese great wall, but bunkers, casemates, turrets, and fortresses interconnected with underground tunnel. And as you can see in the next picture, the line behind the direct French-German border was far stronger than the line behind the Belgium and Luxembourg borders.

According to the wikipedia's article, the specific objectives of this fortification are:

The location of the fortification

• To avoid surprise attack
• To delay the enemy, covering the time for mobilization (2-3 weeks)
• To save manpower
• To protect Alsace-Lorraine (Elsaß-Lothringen, the area behind the "strong fortification" line on the map on the left.)
• To be used as base in counter-attack operation
• To force the enemy to attack France NOT from the direct French-German border (See the map on the left.)
• To show non-aggressive stance of France

For me all of these objectives are rational, feasible, and achievable objectives. And indeed they achieved all of that.

The War

When the German's finally came in May 10th 1940, the line functioned as intended. Everybody know that France was not the aggressor, they also forced the German's NOT to attack from their shared borders, they forced the German's to attack in another direction, they detected German's invasion of Belgium, and  finally, they managed to delay the Germans long enough to mobilize their forces, for counter-offensive together with British Expeditionary Forces (BEF).

But they still lost the war. 

How come?

The German's invasion of Belgium was just a diversion. The main thrust of attack came from Ardennes forest (The area in South Belgium, near Luxembourg.), that was very weakly defended.  After puncturing the defense line, the German's armored corps swung North, cutting the France army and the BEF logistic line, trapping them in Belgium without fuel. 

This could be only temporary setback for the France, IF they had a reserve forces. Unfortunately, the didn't have it. They throw everything to Belgium, nothing could stop the German Panzers to roll to Paris and to the South coast.

The End Verdict:

So, the Maginot Line is never a bullshit building because it already fulfilled its rational purpose. The fault was in the hand of its designer, who like a construction worker prepared himself  to work on a wall, bringing an expensive drill, only to find out he drill in the wrong place, and he didn't bring a screwdriver to put the screw. Don't blame the drill, blame the worker.